Большой Case Number DV-2014, есть шанс?

[Spok7]

@raevsky

Krome togo, ia escio men’she chem ran’she uveren v tom, chto vse nomera do 36300 v DV-14 poluchat interview. No chto vse jelaiuscie s nomerami do 32950 poluchat interview, esli ih dokumenty polucheny v KCC do 1 aprelia, ia uveren.

1. A pochemu ?

2. Vu otvergaete gipotezu o znachitel’nom rasshirenii quote dlya Europe, skazhem do 19.000 -21.000 ? Pochemu ?

[former_user]

1. Potomu chto kogda ia poschital nemnogo tochnee, u menia poluchilsia nomer na 700 men’she chem ran’she. Vrpochem, eto escio ne znachit chto granica budet do 36300.
2. A na kakom osnovanii mne ee prinimat’? Uvelichenie kvoty doljno soprovojdat’soa opredelennymi vescami, kotoryh my ne vidim.

[Spok7]

@raevsky

2. A na kakom osnovanii mne ee prinimat’? Uvelichenie kvoty doljno soprovojdat’soa opredelennymi vescami, kotoryh my ne vidim.

Kakimi opredelennymi vescami ?

Mnogovato Including Family do nomera 32.950, to est’ mozhno predpolozhit’, chto cut-off podnimaetsya slishkom bustro dlya quota ~ 17.000

[former_user]

S chego vy vziali chto mnogovato? Skol’ko bylo v proshlom godu?

[bequester]

@raevsky

Krome togo, ia escio men’she chem ran’she uveren v tom, chto vse nomera do 36300 v DV-14 poluchat interview. No chto vse jelaiuscie s nomerami do 32950 poluchat interview, esli ih dokumenty polucheny v KCC do 1 aprelia, ia uveren.

А всем dv2015 существенно так отличим от Dv2014? Вроде бы и отбор по номерам меньше а прогноз ваш выше…

[Spok7]

@raevsky

S chego vy vziali chto mnogovato? Skol’ko bylo v proshlom godu?

Механизм отбора в DV Program и странности отдельных розыгрышей

1. В DV-2013 был дополнительный розыгрыш. Даже с учетом добавленных нескольких тысяч человек Including Family для Европы на 1 Октября 2013 меньше, чем Including Family на 3 Мая 2014.

19,316 против 19,476

[former_user]

@Spok7

http://www.govorimpro.us/участие-в-бесплатной-визовой-green-card-лотерее-для-иммиграции-в-америку/36962-механизм-отбора-в-dv-program-и-странности-отдельных-розыгрышей-449.html#post1236153

1. В DV-2013 был дополнительный розыгрыш. Даже с учетом добавленных нескольких тысяч человек Including Family для Европы на 1 Октября 2013 меньше, чем Including Family на 3 Мая 2014.

19,316 против 19,476

Vashe sravnenie obladaet odnoi problemoi. Nado sravnivat’ chisla na odnu datu goda. Skajem, 3 maia 2013 na 3 maia 2014. Ia i tak ojidaiu chto v DV-14 budet bol’she viz - 55000 vmesto 51000. Eto na 8% bol’she. Vkliuchaia Evropu. No ne zaschet pereraspredelenia viz mejdu regionami, a za schet rosta vseh regionov. 16700 + 8% = 18000.
Sravnite dannye na 3 maia po odboim godam i davaite poschitaem naskol’ko chisel bol’she. Na eti 8% ili net.

[Spok7]

@raevsky

Vashe sravnenie obladaet odnoi problemoi. Nado sravnivat’ chisla na odnu datu goda. Skajem, 3 maia 2013 na 3 maia 2014. Ia i tak ojidaiu chto v DV-14 budet bol’she viz - 55000 vmesto 51000. Eto na 8% bol’she. Vkliuchaia Evropu. No ne zaschet pereraspredelenia viz mejdu regionami, a za schet rosta vseh regionov. 16700 + 8% = 18000.
Sravnite dannye na 3 maia po odboim godam i davaite poschitaem naskol’ko chisel bol’she. Na eti 8% ili net.

A gde est’ dannue CEAC na May, 3, 2013 ?

[former_user]

Est’ spreadsheet s dannymi na 30 sentiabria. Mojno otsortirovat’ po date, i obrezat’ tret’im maia. A potom prosto poschitat’ chto ostalos’.

[former_user]

@raevsky

Est’ spreadsheet s dannymi na 30 sentiabria. Mojno otsortirovat’ po date, i obrezat’ tret’im maia. A potom prosto poschitat’ chto ostalos’.

Oops. Tak deistvitel’no mojno poschitat’ tol’ko issued i refused, no ne ready, eto verno. Krome togo, est’ effekt Slonera (V DV-13), zanijaiuscii dannye DV-13. Tak chto bespokoit’sia osobenno nechego. Ia bolee chem uveren chto vse ob’iasniaetsia imenno etimi dvumia vescami

[Spok7]

@raevsky

Oops. Tak deistvitel’no mojno poschitat’ tol’ko issued i refused, no ne ready, eto verno. Krome togo, est’ effekt Slonera (V DV-13), zanijaiuscii dannye DV-13. Tak chto bespokoit’sia osobenno nechego. Ia bolee chem uveren chto vse ob’iasniaetsia imenno etimi dvumia vescami

A chto vu dumaete po povodu etogo ?

I think there is strong possibility for EU to be current next VB. I have done the same calculations for EU: so far almost 11k visas with 3.5k fresh ready cases. It’s likely that till June we will have no more than 14k visas issued. I believe the quota will be no less than 19.5k and to fill that having taken into account success rate EU will need 7000 more selectees to fill 5,5k visas. There is only Uzbec. left as unknown since last CN for Ukrain is less than 21k. I was surprised by the number of late comers but still 7000 selectees in high CN should give us around 17,5k CN. So 17,5+33for June = 50,5 MAX CN for EU. We can’t be sure what density we have among high CN and if there will be more late comers, but if they are late comers they will be put at the back of the queue.
I would like to see Simon’s face when he check Aug. VB. If Eu is not current and there is cut off number it will be no less than 42k. That will exceed his latest predictions.

[former_user]

@Spok7

A chto vu dumaete po povodu etogo ?

I think there is strong possibility for EU to be current next VB. I have done the same calculations for EU: so far almost 11k visas with 3.5k fresh ready cases. It’s likely that till June we will have no more than 14k visas issued. I believe the quota will be no less than 19.5k and to fill that having taken into account success rate EU will need 7000 more selectees to fill 5,5k visas. There is only Uzbec. left as unknown since last CN for Ukrain is less than 21k. I was surprised by the number of late comers but still 7000 selectees in high CN should give us around 17,5k CN. So 17,5+33for June = 50,5 MAX CN for EU. We can’t be sure what density we have among high CN and if there will be more late comers, but if they are late comers they will be put at the back of the queue.
I would like to see Simon’s face when he check Aug. VB. If Eu is not current and there is cut off number it will be no less than 42k. That will exceed his latest predictions.

Poslushaite, Spok. On to je samoe pishet i pro drugie regiony. S ego tochki zrenia, shodnye argumenty primenimy ko vsem regionam i oznachaiut chto kvota povysitsia suscstvennym obrazom vo vseh regionah, chto v summe sostavit minimum 60K.
Vtoroi moi argument protiv etogo sostoit v tom, chto zdes’ ne soderjitsia ni odnogo konkretnogo vychislenia, lish’ obscie slova. Na osnovanii chego delaetsia vyvod (sovershenno nevozmojnyi) ob uvelichenii mirovoi kvoty do 60K. Pri etom sovsreshenno poniatno kakoi imenno interes podogrevaet podobnye spekuliacii.

Chtoby rassujdeniam verili, oni doljny byt’:

1. Konkretnymi, a ne obscimi
2. Neprotivorechivymi.

V dannom sluchae otsutstvuiut oba momenta.

[Spok7]

@raevsky

Vashe sravnenie obladaet odnoi problemoi. Nado sravnivat’ chisla na odnu datu goda. Skajem, 3 maia 2013 na 3 maia 2014. Ia i tak ojidaiu chto v DV-14 budet bol’she viz - 55000 vmesto 51000. Eto na 8% bol’she. Vkliuchaia Evropu. No ne zaschet pereraspredelenia viz mejdu regionami, a za schet rosta vseh regionov. 16700 + 8% = 18000.
Sravnite dannye na 3 maia po odboim godam i davaite poschitaem naskol’ko chisel bol’she. Na eti 8% ili net.

Ya nashel vash file s final’numi dannumi po DV-2013. Bulo vremya tol’ko mel’kom vzglyanut’

1. Pochemu vashi dannue v SUMMARY otlichayutsya ot COMPARE WITH 2013 zdes’ -

CEAC-04-02-2014

2. Vulglyadit tak chto dlya Including Family tol’ko EUROPE v DV-2014 do nomera 32.950 prevusila itogovue cufru DV-2013.

Ostal’nue regions - net ?

Vam ne kazhetsya eto strannum ?

[former_user]

@Spok7

Ya nashel vash file s final’numi dannumi po DV-2013. Bulo vremya tol’ko mel’kom vzglyanut’

1. Pochemu vashi dannue v SUMMARY otlichayutsya ot COMPARE WITH 2013 zdes’ -

CEAC-04-02-2014 - Google Sheets

2. Vulglyadit tak chto dlya Including Family tol’ko EUROPE v DV-2014 do nomera 32.950 prevusila itogovue cufru DV-2013.

Ostal’nue regions - net ?

Vam ne kazhetsya eto strannum ?

1. Ia schitaiu ne tak kak oni, inache. Naprimer, esli osnovnoi zaiavitel’ uje poluchil vizu, a ostal’nye chleny ego sem’i - poka net, to ia schitaiu, chto viza poka odna, a ostal’nye nahodiatsia v inom statuse, a oni schitaiut kak budto ostal’nye chleny sem’i toje uje poluchili vizu.
2. Davaite srabnim dannye po kakomu-nibud’ drugomu regionu. Po kakomy vy hotite? Kakie cifry seichas po nemu po moim dannym i po ih dannym? V DV-13 i DV-14?

[Spok7]

@raevsky

1. Ia schitaiu ne tak kak oni, inache. Naprimer, esli osnovnoi zaiavitel’ uje poluchil vizu, a ostal’nye chleny ego sem’i - poka net, to ia schitaiu, chto viza poka odna, a ostal’nye nahodiatsia v inom statuse, a oni schitaiut kak budto ostal’nye chleny sem’i toje uje poluchili vizu.
2. Davaite srabnim dannye po kakomu-nibud’ drugomu regionu. Po kakomy vy hotite? Kakie cifry seichas po nemu po moim dannym i po ih dannym? V DV-13 i DV-14?

REGION	FINAL DV-2013/ INCLUDING FAMILY acc. to Raevsky file	MAY-2014/ INCLUDING FAMILY/ UP TO CN 32.950 b[/b]
AFRICA	34,963	23,055
ASIA	10,730	8,084
EUROPE	19,316	19,476
NORTH AMERICA	13	2
OCEANIA	863	760
SOUTH AMERICA	943	1,350
TOTAL
66,828 za 12 month
52,727 za 7 month

[former_user]

Mai byl poslednii mesiac dlia Evropy kogda v DV-13 nomera escio pribavlialis’. T.e. CN v DV-13 dlia EU byl current. Po suti, rech’ lish’ ob odnom mae. Krome togo, effekt Slonera dlia Evropy kuda sil’nee chem dlia drugih regionov (ved’ malye nomera porojdaiut effekt Slonera, a bol’shie net; i v Evrope malyh nomer mnogo, vklicuahaia strany na U, a bol’shih malo; v ostal’nyh regionah krome Afrike eto sovsem ne tak, tam nomera ne limitirovany spec. predelami dlia spec. stran). V Afrike toje tak je s effektom Slonera, no tam, vidimo, vvidu otsutstvia tehnologii vse delaetsia v poslednii moment.

[Spok7]

@raevsky

Mai byl poslednii mesiac dlia Evropy kogda v DV-13 nomera escio pribavlialis’. T.e. CN v DV-13 dlia EU byl current. Po suti, rech’ lish’ ob odnom mae. Krome togo, effekt Slonera dlia Evropy kuda sil’nee chem dlia drugih regionov (ved’ malye nomera porojdaiut effekt Slonera, a bol’shie net; i v Evrope malyh nomer mnogo, vklicuahaia strany na U, a bol’shih malo; v ostal’nyh regionah krome Afrike eto sovsem ne tak, tam nomera ne limitirovany spec. predelami dlia spec. stran). V Afrike toje tak je s effektom Slonera, no tam, vidimo, vvidu otsutstvia tehnologii vse delaetsia v poslednii moment.

Napomnite - chto takoe effekt slonera ?

[former_user]

Lish’ chast’ interview s oktiabria po dekabr’ 2012 popala v ceac

[Spok7]

@raevsky

Lish’ chast’ interview s oktiabria po dekabr’ 2012 popala v ceac

No eta chast’ popala v CEAC eventually ?

Ne sovsem ponyal. Ya sravnivayu dannue vashego CEAC file ot Nov.2013 against dannuh na May, 3. 2014.

Kakim obrazom dannue kotoruh ne bulo v CEAC v Mae 2013 ob’yasnayut to, chto Including Family do nomera 32.950 uzhe bol’she chem ih bulo vsego v DV-2013 ?

Ili 19.316 dlya Europe - eto nepolnue dannue, ih na samom dele bulo bol’she ?

[former_user]

@Spok7

No eta chast’ popala v CEAC eventually ?

Ne sovsem ponyal. Ya sravnivayu dannue vashego CEAC file ot Nov.2013 against dannuh na May, 3. 2014.

Kakim obrazom dannue kotoruh ne bulo v CEAC v Mae 2013 ob’yasnayut to, chto Including Family do nomera 32.950 uzhe bol’she chem ih bulo vsego v DV-2013 ?

Ili 19.316 dlya Europe - eto nepolnue dannue, ih na samom dele bulo bol’she ?

Net, tak i ne popala.
Ob’iasniaet tak chto na samom dele v DV-13 Including family bol’she chem pokazano v dannyh CEAC. Poetomu v DV-14 ih na samom dele men’she chem v DV-13 bylo by esli by tuda popali vse kto doljen.
Da, imenno 19316 - eto nepolnye dannye.